North American Volume Outlook
Q: How do you see North American volumes and earnings in 2025?
A: We are modeling North American volume to be flat in 2025, aligning with market performance, which we estimate to be in the range of -1% to +2%, depending on consumer strength. Despite last year's record fourth quarter, we're not assuming the consumer will be exceptionally strong this year. " , "

Capital Allocation Plans
Q: How will you deploy excess cash flow?
A: After dividends, we expect to have about $550–$600 million remaining. We're currently modeling a 50/50 split between debt reduction and share repurchases. This can change depending on market conditions and how we're valued, as we believe we're significantly undervalued given our strong balance sheet and cash flow generation. "

European Growth Sustainability
Q: Is European momentum sustainable into 2025?
A: We see strong traction in Europe with potential for mid-single-digit growth. The aluminum beverage can is well-positioned due to environmental trends and higher recycling rates. We expect continued conversion from glass to cans and don't see this slowing down. " , "

Impact of Tariffs
Q: How will tariffs affect your business?
A: While we expect significant Midwest aluminum premium increases due to tariffs, most of our aluminum is domestically sourced, so we don't foresee a direct impact. However, higher tariffs could indirectly affect us if consumers face inflationary pressures and reduce purchasing. " , "

Pricing and Overcapacity in North America
Q: Will overcapacity affect pricing in North America?
A: We believe concerns over regional overcapacity are overstated. The market is 120 billion cans, and small pockets of overcapacity shouldn't dictate pricing. The industry remains healthy, and the exit of some new entrants has reinforced the strength of established players. "

Asia Volume Expectations
Q: When will volumes in Asia rebound?
A: We're stabilized in Asia and expect positive volumes in Southeast Asia in 2025, offset by a decline in China as we exit unprofitable business. We anticipate consumer recovery and a return to pre-pandemic buying habits in about 12 months. " , " , "

Potential to Outgrow North American Market
Q: Can you outgrow the North American market?
A: Yes, if our portfolio categories outperform. We have strong positions in carbonated water and a growing presence in energy drinks. If these segments grow faster than others, we may outperform the market. However, our guidance assumes performance in line with the market. "

Contract Renewals
Q: Do you have major contracts up for renewal soon?
A: We don't see any major contract renewals until the end of 2026 going into 2027. We're confident in our contracted business for 2025 and believe we'll be ahead of the market in 2026. "

Transit Business Outlook
Q: What are your expectations for transit business recovery?
A: We've consolidated facilities and taken costs out. While we expect more of the same in the first half of the year, we're hopeful for an uptick in the back half. The cost base is in good shape, and we're starting to see some positive signs in protective packaging. " , "

Capital Allocation Beyond Normal Investments
Q: Will you invest beyond normal capital allocations?
A: We don't see the need to spend significantly beyond normal capital allocation. We have capacity to grow into over the next couple of years without large investments. Our expected capital expenditure envelope of $400–$500 million includes any necessary growth. "

Innovation in Alcoholic Beverages
Q: Where do you see innovation in alcoholic beverages?
A: We expect continued growth in flavored vodka-based drinks, tequila, and nutraceutical-infused beverages. These products are largely offered in cans, and we anticipate this innovation will contribute to increased can usage without cannibalizing existing products. "

Latin America Performance
Q: What's driving strength in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia?
A: In Brazil, the market trend is upward over the long term, and we've rebounded nicely after a down period. In Colombia, our high-speed plant is performing excellently. Mexico remains a solid business exceeding $1 billion in sales, with strong demand for beverage cans and closures. "

Manufacturing Improvements
Q: What is driving manufacturing improvements?
A: Increased volumes improve efficiency and absorption. We're seeing better efficiency, reduced spoilage, and higher asset utilization. A leadership change in our North American beverage manufacturing has significantly boosted performance. "

Substrate Substitution Potential
Q: How much runway is there for substrate substitution?
A: In Europe, the shift from glass to cans is significant due to cost and environmental factors. In the U.S., the glass-to-can transition is substantially complete, but there's potential for converting PET in carbonated soft drinks to cans. Brazil and Mexico have substantial room for growth in cans for beer and soft drinks. "

North American Food Can Performance
Q: What's driving improvement in North American food cans?
A: Food cans have been stable to up over the last 6–8 quarters, with good performance even if volumes are sideways. We have a balanced portfolio with significant pet food and vegetable presence, and these customers performed well in the fourth quarter. "

Impact of Tariffs on Transit
Q: Does transit face meaningful impact from tariffs?
A: Higher tariffs on China could protect domestic transit, food can, and aerosol can businesses. Previous tariffs led to circumvention via importing filled goods from China, compromising domestic producers. Addressing this could be beneficial. "

Depreciation and EBITDA Guidance
Q: Any comments on depreciation and EBITDA guidance?
A: Depreciation is expected to be around $310 million, and we exclude amortization from our guidance. We're spending more in capital than depreciation, so depreciation will increase year-over-year. EBITDA guidance of around $1.96 billion aligns with our projections. "

Automation in Transit Business
Q: Have you benefited from automation trends?
A: Yes, we've seen benefits as customers automate their back-end processes. Our own automated warehouse in the U.K. is an example. However, this is partially offset by low equipment orders for standard strapping and wrapping equipment. "

Mexico Volume Details
Q: How did Mexico volumes perform?
A: In the fourth quarter, our volumes in Mexico were down approximately 2.5%, while the industry was down 3.5%, based on information from the Can Association in Mexico. "

Pension and FX Impact
Q: What is the pension and FX impact on earnings?
A: The strengthened dollar is impacting our projections by about $0.10, already included in our guidance. From pension annuitization, we expect an improvement of around $0.08 in earnings. "